Global uncertainty prompts investors to shift towards gold
Reading time:15 MIN
Current market commentary
Following the technical recovery rally due to reflation and the major decline in options, the stock market upswing has stalled again. The main reasons for this are likely to be concerns about a stronger economic slowdown in the US and the uncertainty surrounding US tariffs. Last week, US President Donald Trump announced special tariffs of 25 per cent on all cars not manufactured in the US. He plans to announce further details of his tariff plans on 2 April. The high level of uncertainty is weighing on the mood of companies, which currently have no planning certainty. Accordingly, profit estimates for US companies have recently been revised downwards. One relative beneficiary of the high level of uncertainty is gold, which reached new all-time highs last week. The government bond markets, on the other hand, continue to fluctuate sideways in a volatile manner, caught between growth and inflation concerns. If 2 April brings more clarity, this would be good for the markets.
Short-term outlook
In terms of monetary policy, things will be quieter in the coming weeks until the ECB meeting on 17 April. Instead, the announcement of Trump's tariffs on 2 April is likely to be exciting in terms of trade policy. On Liberation Day, Trump plans to impose additional tariffs on countries that export significantly more to the US than they import.
In economic terms, the week starts with the purchasing managers' indices for China (Mar.) and the preliminary inflation data (Mar.) for Germany. This will be followed on Tuesday by the purchasing managers' indices (Mar.) for the USA and the eurozone. Wednesday will see the ADP employment figures for the USA (Mar.) and Thursday the trade balance (Feb.) and purchasing managers' indices for the services sector (Mar.). Friday will be exciting with the important US labour market data (Mar.). In the following week, in addition to the start of the Q1 reporting season, investors will focus on the US inflation data (Mar.) for consumers and producers.
Global uncertainty prompts investors to shift towards gold
- Gold recently reached a new all-time high of USD 3,085 per troy ounce. In addition to the ongoing central bank purchases, strong purchases of gold ETFs also provided support recently amid uncertainty caused by Donald Trump's policies.
- Global holdings in gold ETFs have risen by almost 5 million ounces since the beginning of the year, the fastest increase since the start of the war in early 2022.
- Despite the price surge, investors likely have further potential to expand their gold holdings.