2024: positive returns wherever you look

Current market commentary

2024 was a successful year – especially for EUR-based investors. US growth surprised positively last year. The US dollar gained more than 6% against the euro. US government bonds lost in local currency, but not in EUR. The S&P 500 rose by more than 20% for the second year in a row. In Europe, there was a major discrepancy. Thanks to its heavyweights (e.g. SAP), the Dax was among the relative winners, while French equities suffered from domestic politics and the slump in luxury goods. Gold was by far the best performing asset class in 2024, with a return of more than 30% in EUR. But oil and industrial metals also gained. Within bonds, high-yield bonds performed best due to the robust economy and short duration. Government bonds were the relative losers. For 2025, we expect more volatility and less upside potential for equities, especially for US equities, which have already priced in a great deal of positive news.

Short-term outlook

In terms of monetary policy, 2025 promises to be an exciting year. In the US, Donald Trump will take office on 20 January. In addition, early parliamentary elections will be held in Germany at the end of February following the collapse of the coalition government. The first central bank meetings of the ECB and the Fed are also scheduled for the end of January, while the next two weeks are expected to be quiet.

At the beginning of the week, the preliminary consumer prices (Dec.) and retail sales (Nov.) for Germany and the eurozone, as well as the purchasing managers' indices for the service sector (Dec.) will be published. On Wednesday, the ADP labour market data (Dec.) for the US will follow, and on Friday, the preliminary Michigan consumer sentiment (Jan.) and the important labour market data (Dec.) for the US. The following week, the consumer price index (Dec.) and retail sales (Dec.) for the US and the UK are on the agenda.