Limited Upside Potential

Most important assessments at a glance

Economics

• The global recovery is underway. The Delta variant has become the test case, but risks to the economy are manageable.
• After the easing of the lockdowns, consumers have pent-up demand, companies want to invest and politicians support.
• Inflation returns somewhat more dynamically with the recovery – central banks will only tighten policy gradually.

Equities

• The overall market is experiencing a slight uptrend, with low volatility. US equities again ahead of European counterparts.
• Growth stocks have benefitted from declining reflation dynamics. Value hardly appears to react to positive earnings revisions.
• We think that there is limited upside potential and have taken a balanced position, with only a slight overweight in equities.

Bonds

• Bond yields recently failed to find their way up, despite good fundamentals and increased inflation.
• Hardly any falling risk premiums for corporate bonds. EUR high-yield bonds are attractive against historical comparisons.
• We underweight bonds and focus on credit risk and off-benchmark themes. Duration: short.

Commodities

• Rising real interest rates limit the potential for gold. Jewellery and central bank demand continue to provide tailwinds.
• The supply situation for oil is tight. The market is likely to remain in deficit and the oil price, therefore, is well supported.
• Industrial metals consolidate due to profit-taking. The long-term investment case remains intact.

Currencies

• EUR/USD: the US Federal Reserve (Fed) is strengthening the dollar, but our euro outlook is positive in the medium term.
• GBP is in sideways mode after a very strong Q1 – at current levels, EUR/GBP appears to be fairly valued.
• CHF is hardly making any headway and no major movements are expected for the time being.