Bumpy Summer

Most important assessments at a glance

Economics

• The recovery of the global economy is gaining momentum - US ahead, Europe catching up

• After the easing of the lockdowns: consumers have pent-up demand, companies want to invest, politicians lend support

• Inflation returns with the upswing - but central banks will only slowly tighten their policies from 2022 onwards

Equities

• EUR equities moved ahead of US counterparts. This is likely to remain unchanged due to economic catch-up potential

• The ups and downs in styles make it difficult to get a clear market picture. However, the tailwind for value is still there

• We have a balanced position and are only slighty overweight in equities, as the summer is likely to be bumpy

Bonds

• There has been a pause in the rise in yields; looking ahead, however, yields are likely to rise again

• Corporate bonds remain in demand with positive economic development and thanks to a comparatively shorter duration

• We underweight bonds and focus on credit risk and off-benchmark themes. Duration: short

Commodities

• The gold price has seen the bottom and is on its way up amid high investor demand

• Brent oil made further gains recently and is well supported even with production expansions thanks to rising demand

• Industrial metals recently paused for a healthy breather. However, the investment case remains intact

Currencies

• EUR/USD is hovering around the 1.20 mark. Our euro outlook for the rest of the year remains positive

• GDP with moderate correction after very strong first quarter. However, economic prospects remain good

• CHF gains slightly again. The EUR/CHF exchange rate nevertheless remains close to the 1.10 mark