From all-time high to all-time high

Economics

• Global economy loses momentum in the short term but vaccination progress helps against the Delta wave of the pandemic.
• Outlook 2022 remains positive: consumers have pent-up demand, companies want to invest and politics are supportive.
• Inflation will return more dynamically with the upswing – central banks will cautiously tighten their policies.

Equities

• Western stock markets hit new all-time highs in August. Asia attempts a turnaround and has significant catch-up potential.
• Growth and defensive stocks remain strong of late. Comeback of value and cyclical stocks possible into the end of the year.
• We are positioning ourselves with a slight overweight in equities and a positive market picture, but with some existing risks.

Bonds

• Government bond yields have recently been unable to escape the rise in inflation. Upward pressure is likely to persist.
• New issue summer break is over. IG Corporate bonds are increasingly unattractive with low risk premiums.
• We underweight bonds and focus on credit risk and off-benchmark themes. Duration: short.

Commodities

• The gold price moved sideways in the absence of a fundamental driver. The focus is on the hedging character.
• Crude oil experienced another volatile month. The supply shortage is likely to persist despite recent production expansion.
• Industrial metals have continuous high demand in the economic upswing. The aluminium price reached new 10 year high.

Currencies

• EUR/USD: “Ups and downs” after a weak phase – will the euro iron out the dip again?
• The euro is gaining another cent against the pound. Still, the exchange rate continues to fluctuate at 0.86 pounds per euro.
• The euro is gaining against the franc. After falling to 1.07 francs per euro, the exchange rate rose to almost 1.09.