Correction in a bull market

Economics

• Omicron and high energy costs weigh on the economy in the short term, in Europe more than in the US.
• Robust upswing from spring: high demand from consumers, companies and countries. Fewer supply bottlenecks.
• Inflation remains high, but declines from Q2 – central banks tighten policy; Fed and BoE very quickly, ECB more slowly.

Equities

• Globally, more restrictive central banks caused selling pressure on the equity markets. Russia risk remains.
• Fundamentally cheap and defensive equities outperform the market. Balanced portfolio essential in 2022.
• We see recovery potential and maintain a moderate overweight in equities. Portfolio hedging will become more important.

Bonds

• Bond sell-off in response to tighter Fed and ECB statements. Government bond exposure still to be avoided.
• Corporate bonds suffer from interest rate risks to the economy. Rising spreads make them increasingly attractive.
• We underweight bonds and remain cautiously positioned on credit risk. Duration: short.

Commodities

• Gold continues to fluctuate around the USD1,800 per ounce mark. A more restrictive interest rate outlook may lead to price losses.
• Crude oil buoyed by lack of demand slump and geopolitical risks. Normalisation remains the base case.
• Industrial metals gained on limited inventory and Russia-Ukraine concerns. China provides new tailwind.

Currencies

• ECB President Lagarde’s press conference creates good mood for the euro. EUR/USD temporarily rises to almost 1.15.
• The pound benefits from tighter monetary policy with an interest rate hike. Post the ECB meeting, however, the euro gains ground.
• Initially, the EUR/CHF exchange rate headed for parity, but turned around after the ECB meeting and rose to 1.06.