Horizon Handout November 2024

Economics

• Eurozone economy unlikely to get going until 2025.
• UK economy with hesitant upturn.
• US economy lands ultra-soft.

Equities

• Strong US quarterly numbers are supporting markets, while the US election is causing short-term volatility.
• The Q3 reporting season is in full swing, with financials and healthcare standing out in Europe.
• Current market sentiment close to neutral.

Bonds

• Strong US economy and labour market support US yields. Ongoing political and fiscal uncertainties in France.
• Corporate bonds continue to be supported by strong balance sheets and cash flows.
• Due to increased interest rate volatility, we continue to keep duration at the overall bond level at neutral.

Alternative investments / commodities

• The fundamentals for oil are good, but supply is rising. Without demand growth (from China), there is a risk of a glut.
• Despite the slowdown in central bank purchases, gold remains fundamentally supported by positive ETF flows.
• Industrial metals await short-term stimulus from China. Structural supply shortage provides medium-term support.

Currencies

• By 2025, a smaller growth advantage of the US over the eurozone could support the euro.
• A possible victory for Trump in the US presidential election, on the other hand, would speak in favour of the dollar.
• The Swiss National Bank is fighting against a too strong franc.