Horizon Handout March

Economics

• More growth for the eurozone this summer - if Trump doesn't intervene.
• Rising inflation in the UK is tying the Bank of England's hands.
• The US economy is booming, but Trump's policies pose risks.

Equities

• European equities are once again outperforming US equities. However, a lot of positive factors have already been priced in.
• US reporting season largely surprised to the upside. European equities have also beaten expectations so far.
• A possible US economic slowdown in Q2 and trade disputes could noticeably increase volatility.

Bonds

• Stubborn inflation remains the Fed's focus, while Europe worries about rising defence spending.
• The risk of valuation corrections has increased recently in both high yield and IG.
• New US President Donald Trump's trade and tariff policies continue to cause tensions in emerging markets.

Alternative investments / commodities

• Oil prices decline amid prospects of peace negotiations. Demand weakens, but supply remains price-sensitive.
• Gold consolidates after strong performance and high positioning. However, structural drivers remain unaffected and intact.
• Industrial metals benefit from potential US tariffs. Slowing economic momentum poses a short-term risk.

Currencies

• Donald Trump's tariff threats in particular have been moving currency markets recently.
• Given the low expectations for the eurozone, it does not take much to give the euro a boost.
• The Japanese economic recovery is supporting the Yen.