Horizon Handout September 2022

Economics

• Inflationary pressures remain high and Europe in an energy crisis. Consumers are unsettled.
• The risks and stress factors are leading into recession, even if labour markets are still robust.
• Inflationary pressure is too high: central banks must continue to tighten monetary policy even if the economy is slowing down.

Equities

• Equity markets staged a recovery rally, which is not historically unusual. Challenges remain.
• The pressure on companies is increasing. Analysts have recently lowered global profit expectations further.
• We are positioning ourselves with a slight equity underweight, as the route to a sustainable recovery is not yet clear.

Bonds

• Yield levels of safe government bonds break upwards. Decline in the inversion of the US yield curve.
• Risk premiums on emerging market bonds under pressure. Spreads tighten in emerging markets in particular.
• We underweight bonds and remain cautiously positioned on credit risk. Duration: less short than before.

Commodities

• Oil burdened by weak global demand, but supply situation remains tight. Stronger price decline unlikely.
• Dollar strength and real interest rate rise offset by recession concerns. Gold with tailwind as recession strengthens.
• Industrial metals burdened in the short term by demand risks and dollar strength. Long-term drivers accelerating.

Currencies

• Despite the first interest rate hike, the euro remains weak. Other central banks were faster and seem more determined.
• Europe is particularly affected by the Russia-Ukraine war. The peace dividend has been used up.
• Against the US dollar and the Swiss franc, the euro falls below parity.