Horizon Handout October 2024

Economics

• USA: economy is cooling down slowly.
• Europe: growth will only pick up pace in 2025.
• Inflation: still heading towards the two per cent target for the time being.
• Monetary policy: interest rates are falling in Europe and the USA.

Equities

• Equity indices should still have moderate upside potential between now and the end of the year. Which regions and sectors benefit should depend heavily on who emerges as the winner from the elections and whether both US chambers are won by the same party.
• Second-line stocks seasonally offer the greatest potential and should be supported by falling interest rates.

Bonds

• Safe government bonds with a positive third quarter, but price potential exhausted.
• Market technology supports European corporate bonds, we favour the more defensive investment-grade segment.
• Local currency bonds from emerging markets with untapped potential, attractive entry opportunities.

Alternative Investments / commodities

• Oil continues sideways despite mixed outlook.
• Gold at all-time high, but there is still room for further growth.
• Industrial metals are waiting for increasing activity in the manufacturing sector

Currencies

• Major central banks step away from the interest rate peak.
• The dollar has recently lost some of its strength.
• Swiss franc recently in demand as a safe haven.