Horizon Handout May 2021

Economics

• Recovery delayed by persistent wave of infections. Sluggish vaccination progress burdens.
• US and Great Britain with advantages thanks to rapid vaccination of their populations. The return to normality is initiated.
• Monetary and fiscal policy support and vaccines argue for a strong upswing in the summer.

Equities

• In line with typical seasonality, equity markets made broad gains. Only emerging market equities stagnated.
• Analysts have raised earnings estimates across almost all regions, valuations have nevertheless risen.
• We continue to focus on quality growth companies, complemented by cyclical elements such as Latin American equities.

Bonds

• Pressure on EUR yields increases due to positive economic outlook. Government bonds remain unattractive.
• Risk premiums historically at a low level. High-yield bonds still offer slight potential thanks to economic recovery.
• We continue to keep duration short and underweight bonds in the multi-asset portfolio.

Alternative investments / commodities

• Gold has found its bottom. The great selling pressure on the part of investors is gone. Jewellery demand supports.
• Rising demand for crude oil in the West over the summer. Later, Iran's return as an oil exporter could be a burden.
• Industrial metals have risen strongly recently. Further potential in the long term thanks to decarbonisation.

Currencies

• The euro is on the rise again as the vaccination gap against the US and UK is included in the rates.
• US dollar and British pound give up some of their previous gains against the euro. EUR/CHF above 1.10.
• No fresh impulses from the central banks. ECB, Fed and BoE remain in flexible waiting mode.

Read the full article here.