Horizon Handout March 2024

Economics

• US economy approaches ultra-soft landing – growth declines only a little below long-term average.
• Chinese growth stabilizes at around 4% – a weak rate by Chinese standards.
• Eurozone can turn up again from Q2 onwards after inventory correction comes to an end.

Equities

• Stock markets continue strong rally. Solid reporting season, robust economic data and fiscal policy support share prices.
• US equities remain expensively valued. Limited potential for further valuation expansion without a sharp interest rate cut.
• Opportunities in second-line stocks, quality growth stocks and emerging markets, especially Latin America.

Bonds

• The robust US economy and stubborn inflation on both sides of the Atlantic are dampening expectations of interest rate cuts.
• Spreads in the IG and HY segments have recently fallen again due to high demand and a lack of new issues.
• EM spreads remain stable despite global outflows, supported by high local demand.

Alternative investments / commodities

• Geopolitical risk premium for oil remains, but no clear fundamental imbalance recognisable.
• Gold defies higher real interest rates and ETF outflows thanks to strong physical demand.
• Industrial metals are trending sideways and are waiting for clearer impulses from the manufacturing sector.

Currencies

• The euro benefits when there is less demand for the US dollar. But there is no real euro strength in sight.
• The US dollar is benefiting from its status as a "safe haven" and remains structurally strong.
• Influence of rate expectations – markets increasingly expect first ECB cut to come a bit later.