Horizon Handout July 2024

Economics

• The hesitant economic recovery in the eurozone is being driven primarily by the services sector.
• Inflation falls and confidence rises in the UK.
• The US economy is slowly cooling down, but there is no sign of a slump.

Equities

• Equity markets to trend sideways in a volatile manner until the US elections. Anti-cyclical action therefore seems sensible.
• In terms of valuation, Europe has room for upside, especially if the economic upturn continues.
• Focus on megatrend winners, European small caps and commodity shares. Defensive equities as a tactical addition.

Bonds

• Investors in safe government bonds are benefiting from the rise in interest rates; price gains are not to be expected.
• In the case of European corporate bonds, high-yield securities are back.
• Improved economic prospects and yield premiums make local currency securities in emerging markets attractive.

Alternative Investments / commodities

• Gold with structural potential despite strong momentum.
• Oil with a tailwind over the summer.
• Industrial metals attractive in the long term after consolidation.

Currencies

• Start of the interest rate turnaround hardly weighs on the euro.
• Currency effects of falling interest rates will be offset by economic recovery.
• Swiss National Bank will prevent the franc from appreciating too much.