Horizon Handout August 2024

Economics

• Positive economic surprises in Europe in Q2, continued robust growth in the US.
• Upswing in the UK continues.
• US economy grows faster than expected in the second quarter.

Equities

• Stock markets with strong rotation in July away from megacaps, tech, growth and momentum towards value and small caps.
• Q2 reporting season in full swing. Declining price momentum of mega caps weighs on valuations.
• High investor positioning, weaker economic data and US elections argue against offensive positioning.

Bonds

• After the ECB's interest rate pause in July, the markets are expecting interest rate cuts by the ECB and the Fed in September.
• IG corporate bonds offer historically more attractive valuations on a spread basis compared to the high-yield segment.
• Local currency securities in emerging markets remain attractive both technically and fundamentally.

Alternative Investments / commodities

• The oil price stands and falls with the production policy of OPEC+ and is therefore in a sideways trend for the time being.
• Gold has upside potential despite a new all-time high thanks to rising ETF inflows.
• Industrial metals burdened by weak activity in China but offer interesting entry prices after a setback.

Currencies

• Euro rallies slightly on diminishing French risk and the prospect of an earlier turnaround in US interest rates.
• Short-term fluctuations in the euro-dollar exchange rate may occur around the US presidential election.
• Swiss National Bank keeps an eye on the franc.